Bob’s Hailstone – August 12, 2025
Plus a teaser about how laughable our financial gurus are in predicting the future
Bob’s Hailstone – August 12, 2025
By Jim Reynolds
Grook:
The louder they warn, the less they admit—
that the truth might not fit the frame they’ve knit.
Fear sells fast, but the markets know—
bluster fades when the numbers grow.
Intro:
They told you the sky was falling. They always do. Every time Trump rolls out a policy that challenges the globalist playbook, the credentialed class predicts catastrophe — market collapse, runaway inflation, geopolitical isolation, dogs and cats living together. And every time, reality refuses to cooperate.
Back in April, the media and financial elite lined up to declare his 2025 tariffs a kamikaze mission. Now it’s August, and the numbers are in — markets up, inflation steady, and $300 billion in tariff revenue on track for the year. The loudest critics? Nowhere to be found.
Before we get to today’s headlines, here’s a quick refresher from the upcoming Winning Deal mega-piece — a few choice predictions, and the reality that crushed them.
Predictions vs. Reality — Tariff Edition
A teaser from the upcoming “Winning Deal” mega-piece
Remember April? The “experts” were popping champagne over their own doom forecasts. Here’s a taste of what they said… and what actually happened.
Larry Summers: “This is how economic disasters begin.”
Reality: S&P 500 at record intraday high, July 18, 2025.
Bob: “Guess we won’t be listening to Larry anymore.”WSJ Editorial Board: “Trump’s tariff plan is a 1930s mistake in a 2025 world.”
Reality: Inflation stable, no stagflation.
Bob: “Their favorite decade is 2008.”Steve Liesman, CNBC: “Markets are terrified — this is a generational policy error.”
Reality: Dow & S&P both up double digits since April.
Bob: “Terrified? They’re at record highs, Steve.”Business Insider: “Trump’s plan is economic suicide.”
Reality: $300B in tariff revenue, mass stimulus checks in discussion.
Bob: “Looks like the suicide note was fake.”
Bob: “They called it chaos. We called it Tuesday.”
1. DC Crime Spiral: From Denial to Desperation
(Byron York, DC Examiner | Chris Lehmann, The Nation | Emily Jashinsky, UnHerd)
Washington, DC is bleeding out politically and physically — crime is rampant, residents are fleeing, and even longtime defenders are whispering that it’s time for a real fix. Some blame soft-on-crime policies, others blame poverty and inequity, but everyone agrees: it’s unsafe. The political class still can’t decide whether to treat this as a crime wave or a PR issue — which is why their approval ratings are getting mugged, too.
Bob: “When your ‘perception problem’ comes with an armed carjacking, you’ve got a reality problem.”
Jim: DC isn’t Gotham — it’s Metropolis with the lights out.
Leans: Right
2. Democrats Need a New Agenda. Here’s Where To Start
(Schoen & Cooperman, The Hill)
Two Democrat strategists admit the party’s ideas cupboard is bare — and propose restocking it with watered-down centrism to lure back disillusioned voters. Translation: their progressive base scares independents, but they can’t say it out loud.
Bob: “They’re moving from soy milk to 2%. Bold.”
Jim: This isn’t vision — it’s Velveeta politics.
Leans: Center-Left
3. Inside the Biden Effort To ‘Debank’ Trump
(Charles Gasparino, NY Post)
Sources say the administration leaned on financial institutions to cut Trump off from banking services — an escalation in the political weaponization of finance. It’s the kind of tactic authoritarian regimes use, only here it comes with a Wall Street gloss and a press secretary smile.
Bob: “From Russiagate to Debankgate — when do we get the ‘Sorry’ gate?”
Jim: Financial blacklisting isn’t governance. It’s cartel behavior.
Leans: Right
4. World Seeks To Reward Hamas for Its Atrocities
(Kenin Spivak, RCP)
Some international players want to recognize Palestinian statehood because of Hamas’s attacks, not in spite of them. It’s the diplomatic equivalent of paying ransom — and then acting surprised when kidnappings spike.
Bob: “When terrorism pays, guess what you get more of?”
Jim: This is moral inversion with diplomatic letterhead.
Leans: Right
5. The Mirage of Palestinian Statehood
(Philip Cunliffe, Compact)
A sober reminder that calls for Palestinian statehood ignore decades of governance failures, systemic corruption, and violent rejectionism. Every peace process failure points back to leadership that prizes martyrdom over markets.
Bob: “The problem isn’t the borders. It’s what’s inside them.”
Jim: Peace requires partners, not pyromaniacs.
Leans: Right
6. Gov. Newsom, Climate Warrior, Flinches
(Jack Fowler, Nat’l Review)
California’s climate crusader quietly caves on aggressive mandates after pushback from unions and industry. Turns out “saving the planet” is negotiable if it means upsetting the Teamsters in an election year.
Bob: “Turns out the planet can wait if the Teamsters are mad.”
Jim: Nothing exposes fake virtue like an election calendar.
Leans: Right
7. Yes, a Moon Base
(Ross Andersen, The Atlantic)
A case for putting a permanent human base on the moon — because exploration, ambition, and big projects still matter. If we don’t, someone else will, and they won’t be planting an American flag.
Bob: “Finally, a stimulus plan for the cheese industry.”
Jim: I’m for it. Just make sure the launchpad isn’t in California.
Leans: Center
8. Redistricting Mud Fight Could Get Messy
(Zeeshan Aleem, MSNBC)
States brace for another round of gerrymandering wars, with Democrats drawing the same “creative” maps they’ve long condemned. The lawsuits are already in the drafting stage — some districts look like modern art on a bender.
Bob: “It’s not gerrymandering when we do it. It’s art.”
Jim: Hypocrisy is the only truly bipartisan district.
Leans: Left
9. The Case for Civic Abundance
(Will Friedman, Washington Monthly)
An idealistic call to rebuild trust and capacity in public institutions — minus any workable roadmap. Without accountability, “abundance” becomes a slogan with a grant application attached.
Bob: “Step one: Have nice things. Step two: Don’t ask how.”
Jim: Utopia doesn’t have a zoning board.
Leans: Left
End Note
From DC’s street-level collapse to Newsom’s climate flinch, from global double standards to partisan cartography, the only constant is political actors failing upward.
As Bob says: “It’s not the news that’s depressing — it’s how predictable it is.”